The Brexit Chaos Is Coming To You: Here’s Six Things You Should Pay Attention To

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

You may have noticed that things are getting particularly, absolutely mad with Brexit.

What should you be making of all the talk of this week being the “Endgame”, some “Rebel Alliance” wresting power from Boris Johnson, and a possible general election on Oct. 14?

Clear your head as BuzzFeed News takes you through just six things you need to be paying attention to over the next two days.

1. How many Tories will cross over to the other side?

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The only question that really matters in the run-up to Tuesday night’s vote is: How many Tory MPs will vote against Boris Johnson’s government?

If they do, they’ll “lose the whip”, meaning they’ll no longer be able to call themselves Tory MPs.

Simon Dawson / Reuters

Former minister Justine Greening has already announced she’ll step down as an MP in order to vote against Boris Johnson.

Johnson has a wafer-thin majority and needs to keep the rebels down below the 10 mark if he is to have a hope of winning.

So Downing Street will be piling the pressure on MPs not to rebel all day today. BuzzFeed News is keeping a rolling tally of the number of rebels. You can follow it here.

At around 7pm on Tuesday, speaker John Bercow will decide whether or not to let the so-called “Rebel Alliance” — the Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, and rebel Tory MPs who all want to make sure Boris Johnson can’t take the UK out of the EU without a deal — actually have their vote on seizing control of Parliament.

The ultimate banter moment would be if he refuses.

Get behind your Guardians! #Bercow 👊🙌 #stopnodeal #brexitshambles #time4heroes

But all the signs point to the anti-Brexit independent speaker ripping up the rules and letting the rebels have their vote.

3. Now, does the “Rebel Alliance” have the numbers?

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The first crunch vote will be around 9pm on Tuesday night. Now we’ll find out who will be part of the Rebel Alliance. They need to pass a motion with a simple majority to end the debate and get on to voting for legislation.

Will the number of Tory rebels be higher than the Labour MPs who vote with the government?

The Rebel Alliance is confident they’ll win, but the result is not a foregone conclusion.

4. Does the Rebel Alliance hold?

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If they do win on Tuesday night, the Rebel Alliance will table their anti–no-deal legislation on Wednesday and try to ram it through all the Commons processes in a single day.

If the bill makes it through the Commons, Johnson has indicated that on Thursday he will call a vote on whether to hold a general election on Oct. 14.

5. Will Corbyn vote for an election?

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So let’s say the Rebel Alliance wins, the anti–no-deal legislation passes. In that scenario, Johnson has said he’ll try to call an election. He needs two-thirds of the Commons to trigger an election.

Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn: DO NOT FALL FOR IT.

Simon Dawson / Reuters

They reckon it’s a trap laid by Johnson, and that he could change the date after an election is agreed. Imagine everyone agrees to an election, then Johnson sets the election date to AFTER the Brexit deadline. It’s crazy, but we’re already in Crazytown.

Instead, Labour could seek to lock in the anti–no-deal law and guarantee that the UK can’t fall out of the EU without a deal during an election period.

6. What happens if Johnson can’t call an election?

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It’s possible that the Rebel Alliance could pass their anti–no-deal law and then use their control of the Commons order paper to stop Johnson from having a vote on an election. Or, if there is a vote on an election, Corbyn and the rebels could vote against — under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, Johnson needs a two-thirds majority. This would somewhat thwart the PM’s plan.

cant get ahold of my brexit adviser

Then Johnson would have to rely on further extraordinary measures to keep his promise to leave the EU with or without a deal on Oct. 31. He could try to bypass the Fixed-term Parliament Act. You can read all about the other things he could try here.

This is the worst-case scenario for Johnson — he would essentially be in office but out of power. It is unclear how he would then proceed.

Here Is The Full List Of Rebel Tory MPs Planning To Vote Against Boris Johnson On Brexit

On Tuesday and Wednesday, MPs will vote on whether to wrestle control of the House of Commons away from Boris Johnson’s government and pass a law seeking to block him from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.

If the rebel MPs succeed in their plan to stop no-deal, Downing Street says Johnson will call an election — likely towards the end of this week.

Crucial to the outcome of the crunch votes in Parliament will be the band of Conservative rebels opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Johnson has said that any Tory MPs who do not vote with the government this week will have the Conservative whip withdrawn and be deselected.

Johnson’s administration currently has a working majority of just one. He is likely to secure the votes of a small number of Labour rebels this week, but the number of Tories willing to vote against him looks set to put the UK on course for a general election on Oct. 14.

So, which MPs are planning to vote against Johnson? BuzzFeed News contacted each of the potential Tory rebels and is keeping a rolling list of their answers.

Confirmed voting against the government: 16

David Gauke: The former justice secretary told BuzzFeed News on Monday night that he will vote against the government on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is set to lose the Conservative whip as a result.

Rory Stewart: Told BuzzFeed News that he hopes he will also lose the whip when he rebels.

Justine Greening: Also confirmed to BuzzFeed News that she is rebelling this week.

Dominic Grieve: Worked on the legislation aimed at forcing the prime minister to seek an extension to Article 50.

Oliver Letwin: Another key architect of the anti–no-deal legislation.

Philip Hammond: Supporting the bill attempting to force Johnson to delay Brexit.

Antoinette Sandbach: Indicated to BuzzFeed News that she will rebel. “I voted to leave on 29th March with a deal three times. I have always been consistent that I can not support a no deal Brexit,” she said.

Alistair Burt: Told BuzzFeed News he will rebel.

Richard Harrington: The former minister told BuzzFeed News on Monday night that he is “currently voting against the government”.

Guto Bebb: Said he will be voting to do everything he can to stop no-deal.

Caroline Nokes: Told the BBC: “My constituents mean a whole lot more to me than keeping the Conservative whip.”

Margot James: Told BuzzFeed News: “I am planning to vote against the government tomorrow.”

Sam Gyimah: Told BuzzFeed News on Tuesday morning that he is voting against the government.

Nicholas Soames: Told the Sun he will vote against the government unless Johnson can assure him a deal will be done.

Phillip Lee: His name is on the anti–no-deal motion. He crossed the floor to defect to the Liberal Democrats while Johnson was speaking in the Commons on Tuesday afternoon.

Richard Benyon: Backed the rebel motion on Tuesday evening.

Undecided: 8

David Lidington: Theresa May’s de facto deputy prime minister told BuzzFeed News: “I’ve not made any public comment about my position and haven’t myself agreed to my name being on any of the lists now floating around. I met the PM today and shall look forward to his statement tomorrow [Tuesday].”

Ed Vaizey: Told BuzzFeed News he is undecided.

Steve Brine: “I haven’t said either way. I wrote to the PM last month of course which is where the list comes from. I will decide tomorrow. Saw PM this evening 1-1”.

Jonathan Djanogly: Told BuzzFeed News he hasn’t decided yet.

Greg Clark, Ken Clarke, Stephen Hammond, and Anne Milton have not yet responded to requests for comment.

Voting with the government

Caroline Spelman: Despite being included on a list of potential rebels, she insists she is not voting against Johnson.

Sarah Newton: Was also included on a possible rebel list but told BuzzFeed News: “I am not voting against the Govt” because “I want the PM to have the chance of securing an ‘amended agreement’ — one that works for the EU and UK.”

Alan Duncan: Told BuzzFeed News he will vote with the government.

Theresa May: Said she is voting with the government.