The Brexit Chaos Is Coming To You: Here’s Six Things You Should Pay Attention To

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

You may have noticed that things are getting particularly, absolutely mad with Brexit.

What should you be making of all the talk of this week being the “Endgame”, some “Rebel Alliance” wresting power from Boris Johnson, and a possible general election on Oct. 14?

Clear your head as BuzzFeed News takes you through just six things you need to be paying attention to over the next two days.

1. How many Tories will cross over to the other side?

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The only question that really matters in the run-up to Tuesday night’s vote is: How many Tory MPs will vote against Boris Johnson’s government?

If they do, they’ll “lose the whip”, meaning they’ll no longer be able to call themselves Tory MPs.

Simon Dawson / Reuters

Former minister Justine Greening has already announced she’ll step down as an MP in order to vote against Boris Johnson.

Johnson has a wafer-thin majority and needs to keep the rebels down below the 10 mark if he is to have a hope of winning.

So Downing Street will be piling the pressure on MPs not to rebel all day today. BuzzFeed News is keeping a rolling tally of the number of rebels. You can follow it here.

At around 7pm on Tuesday, speaker John Bercow will decide whether or not to let the so-called “Rebel Alliance” — the Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, and rebel Tory MPs who all want to make sure Boris Johnson can’t take the UK out of the EU without a deal — actually have their vote on seizing control of Parliament.

The ultimate banter moment would be if he refuses.

Get behind your Guardians! #Bercow 👊🙌 #stopnodeal #brexitshambles #time4heroes

But all the signs point to the anti-Brexit independent speaker ripping up the rules and letting the rebels have their vote.

3. Now, does the “Rebel Alliance” have the numbers?

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The first crunch vote will be around 9pm on Tuesday night. Now we’ll find out who will be part of the Rebel Alliance. They need to pass a motion with a simple majority to end the debate and get on to voting for legislation.

Will the number of Tory rebels be higher than the Labour MPs who vote with the government?

The Rebel Alliance is confident they’ll win, but the result is not a foregone conclusion.

4. Does the Rebel Alliance hold?

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If they do win on Tuesday night, the Rebel Alliance will table their anti–no-deal legislation on Wednesday and try to ram it through all the Commons processes in a single day.

If the bill makes it through the Commons, Johnson has indicated that on Thursday he will call a vote on whether to hold a general election on Oct. 14.

5. Will Corbyn vote for an election?

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So let’s say the Rebel Alliance wins, the anti–no-deal legislation passes. In that scenario, Johnson has said he’ll try to call an election. He needs two-thirds of the Commons to trigger an election.

Labour MPs are warning Jeremy Corbyn: DO NOT FALL FOR IT.

Simon Dawson / Reuters

They reckon it’s a trap laid by Johnson, and that he could change the date after an election is agreed. Imagine everyone agrees to an election, then Johnson sets the election date to AFTER the Brexit deadline. It’s crazy, but we’re already in Crazytown.

Instead, Labour could seek to lock in the anti–no-deal law and guarantee that the UK can’t fall out of the EU without a deal during an election period.

6. What happens if Johnson can’t call an election?

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It’s possible that the Rebel Alliance could pass their anti–no-deal law and then use their control of the Commons order paper to stop Johnson from having a vote on an election. Or, if there is a vote on an election, Corbyn and the rebels could vote against — under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, Johnson needs a two-thirds majority. This would somewhat thwart the PM’s plan.

cant get ahold of my brexit adviser

Then Johnson would have to rely on further extraordinary measures to keep his promise to leave the EU with or without a deal on Oct. 31. He could try to bypass the Fixed-term Parliament Act. You can read all about the other things he could try here.

This is the worst-case scenario for Johnson — he would essentially be in office but out of power. It is unclear how he would then proceed.

Insiders Say Dominic Cummings Has Instilled a Culture Of Fear In Boris Johnson’s New Government

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Number 10 adviser Dominic Cummings arrives at Downing Street

When cabinet ministers’ special advisers received an email ordering them to attend a meeting with Dominic Cummings at 7:55am on Monday, some feared the worst.

Boris Johnson’s chief aide has moved to aggressively attempt to tackle the culture of leaking, disloyalty and laziness that he believes existed among government advisers during Theresa May’s premiership.

The “crackdown” — as it is being described by Number 10 officials — has left Whitehall aides in two minds. Several departmental advisers, known in Westminster as SpAds, welcomed the change, telling BuzzFeed News it was badly needed and had provided the government with energy and purpose. Others said it had instilled an atmosphere of fear and division that was sapping morale. Some worried that they could lose their jobs at any moment.

Many suspect Cummings has also sought to send a message to the EU via briefings to Whitehall aides that Johnson is serious in his determination to pursue a no deal Brexit if a new deal cannot be reached by October 31, and that Parliament cannot stop him from doing so. Some believe he is employing a Nixonian “madman strategy”: attempting to convince Brussels the new prime minister is hellbent on leaving at any cost, in the hope of securing a better deal.

One aide described Cummings’ no-nonsense interventions over the past two weeks as a “jihad on SpAds”. In an indication of how pervasive the language of violence is in Westminster, they were actually using the phrase as an endorsement of the new regime.

At Monday morning’s meeting, Cummings told the assembled aides that they were to produce a list of tasks for their departments to prepare for no deal, that it was time for them to “interrogate” their ministers and officials and raise any Brexit planning issues with Number 10 as soon as possible.

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Prime minister Boris Johnson

Those present saw it as a message that they were expected to inform on any ministers or civil servants who were not fully behind Johnson’s Brexit policy. It was also seen as confirmation that Downing Street’s principal communications strategy will be to create a narrative at home and abroad that no deal is genuinely being considered as an option.

Cummings repeatedly railed against Philip Hammond and Greg Clark, two of the most senior Remain-voting ministers in May’s government, accusing them of blocking no deal preparations while in office and instructing those present that any repeat would not be tolerated. His words were an awkward moment for Clark’s former SpAd Will Holloway, who was sitting in the room after being kept on by another minister.

Cummings went on to warn aides — not for the first time — about leaks, telling them that he had been a SpAd himself at the Department for Education, that he knew how it worked and they should not take him for a fool.

He claimed journalists would eventually “rat out” any leakers to Downing Street, a prediction that has been taken with a bucket of salt by aides who know reporters would not reveal their sources. “Could have been done in an email,” one aide said following their earlier than usual start. Another remarked drily: "Vote Leave's Project Fear is on special advisers."

One reason for the nervousness among advisers is the high turnover of SpAds from the May government. May-era SpAds whose ministers were sacked in Johnson’s reshuffle automatically lost their jobs, as is standard practice, but more than 50% are not being retained in a significant changing of the guard.

Several who had hoped to join the new government under other ministers were vetoed by Downing Street. Depending on who you believe, their appointments were blocked either due to them not being considered appropriately supportive of the new government’s policy on no deal, or because Number 10 decided they were not competent or trustworthy enough to deserve new jobs.

Some advisers told BuzzFeed News that the hard line from Number 10 was creating a divide in the government between those perceived as loyal to Cummings and Vote Leave, and those who voted Remain. One aide said they hoped Downing Street could move beyond the Leave and Remain labels. Another aide, asked by BuzzFeed News if their job was secure, replied on WhatsApp with a gif of a frightened Spongebob Squarepants shivering in terror.

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A Number 10 insider confirmed the crackdown, explaining: “We don’t care how they voted. It’s whether you are good at what you do, willing to deliver and don’t leak just so you can feel like Mr/Mrs Big Time with a bunch of hacks.”

“Bet you wish Timmy was managing you now,” a former government aide joked of their ex-colleagues to BuzzFeed News, referring to May’s former chief of staff Nick Timothy, who was considered by departmental SpAds to be a hard taskmaster.

Other Whitehall officials told BuzzFeed News the new structure was a breath of fresh air. “I think those complaining don’t like change,” one said. “It got to the stage under May where SpAd meetings would often be cancelled, now they’re first thing Monday morning and last thing Friday night. I’ve seen more of some SpAds in two weeks than I have in the last four or five months.”

The official said that working with Cummings compared favourably compared to their time under May’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell. “It is a tougher regime but people are asking themselves: how on earth were we not working at this pace before? We’re in crisis mode, how is it that in the previous administration there wasn’t the same sense of urgency?” they said.

One aide said that at the moment, SpAds were “not getting to see thoughtful side” of Cummings, “only the hard edge”. Another departmental aide questioned whether the discipline would last. “It will be interesting to see how it will be in a few weeks,” they said.

An aide summed up the current feeling among colleagues who have not worked with him before, comparing the man who runs Johnson’s government to the ruthless Usual Suspects villain who inspired terror among his enemies.

“He’s like Keyser Soze,” they said. “There’s a whole myth about what he’s like. No one really knows what he’ll do. Will he sack you? Will he throw you out of a window? You never really know.”